CIA: The borders in the Balkans will change

In the Balkans, sooner or later, the borders will change, the new border will most likely be withdrawn in Macedonia, but also in Kosovo, claims the former deputy chief of the CIA for the Balkans, Steven Meyer

"Everything could and should have happened differently, but the great powers saw their own interest more than the interest of the region," says the 1990s war in the former Yugoslavia, prof. dr. Steven Meyer, the former deputy chief of the CIA for the Balkans, in an interview with Belgrade's Vecernje Novosti.

He believes that the EU does not have a solution for the Balkans, and that the United States of America is no longer interested in this region too.

Speaking about Serbia, he assessed that the election of Aleksandar Vucic as president of Serbia was expected.

"He is a smart and effective politician and will do a credible job. The Serbian people today are looking for great achievements, especially for economic reforms, "Meyer said in an interview.

Asked if the October 5 revolution was a democratic revolution or an upheaval, Meyer, who worked in the Balkans before that date, responds:

"The petty-bourgeois revolution in Serbia was, in essence, the overthrow of power. This was done because many politicians in Serbia were convinced that the country would not be able to move forward and would not be accepted by the West while Milosevic was in power. It is clear that Western governments wanted to see a change and that they applauded the forcing of Milosevic. "

Speaking about the situation in the region, he says:

"BiH is now far from being a single state than at any time in the past. Kosovo's issue is becoming more serious, and Macedonia has been in serious decline for months. At the same time, the EU has no answers to the issues that are troubling the Balkans, "Meyer said.

He believes that any change in the borders between Albania and Macedonia can lead to the creation of a Greater Albania, but that it would not be supported by the United States.

"However, it's important to keep in mind that Washington is no longer too interested in the Balkans. The Trump administration will not respond in particular if these changes occur peacefully, similar to the way in which, say, Montenegro has come to independence, "this analyst said.

When asked what kind of fate awaits Macedonia, Meyer replies:

"If Montenegro and Kosovo can claim independence, a reduced Macedonia could also be an option. But that may not be the best direction for this - smaller Macedonia. In that case, it would be wise for them to consider the federal union with Serbia. "

Asked how the US administration would respond in the event of the so-called " of the Kosovo Army, he says the US authorities are not in favor of it, but that can be easily changed.

"The Trump administration has little professional approach to the Balkans. Serbia needs to closely monitor changes in US policy, "he said.

According to him, if the army was formed, that army would add another inflammatory element in a situation that is unstable. This particularly refers to the danger of possible conflicts in northern Kosovo, he added.

Speaking about the situation in BiH, Meyer says that, after dismissing the lawsuit against Serbia, she could become more unstable.

"The Bosniaks are now disappointed and angry, and the Serbs are enraged. This makes it particularly difficult for relations between the Federation and the RS, "Meyer said.

About the possibility of possible terrorist attacks in the Balkans, Meyer said that it is a problem that is increasing and becomes very difficult, especially when it comes to the influence of Wahhabism in Kosovo. "A particular danger is the connection between organized crime and terrorism, and when added to the fact that the Balkans is a transit area, that makes it difficult for us to do business," he pointed out.

As for the interests of the US and Russia in the Balkans, Meyer believes that for both countries this will be a secondary place of action and interest. After 90 years, US official interests have been completed and US interests are now in the Middle East, and the same applies to Russia, said Meyer, who is now the head of the National Security Program at Daniel Morgan Academy in the United States.

Interestingly, Meyer sees no reason why Serbia would become a NATO member. "Membership requires money, there is pressure to buy weapons coming from America and the EU that is not necessary for Serbia," Meyer said, who also believes Montenegro will certainly join NATO, ".

He, too, will find it very difficult, perhaps impossible, to achieve better relations between RS and Washington.

According to Meyer, relations between Russia and the United States are very bad, primarily because of disagreements over Syria and Ukraine, but also because of the accusation that Moscow was involved in the presidential election in the US.

"It is not necessary for the US and Russia to be in love, the most important thing is that they can establish an acceptable employment relationship. But it will be very difficult to do because of the aggressive foreign policy of Russia and the incompetence of the Trump administration, "he concluded.

• 30 Nov, 2017
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