Americans warn: Destabilization of the Balkans can quickly become a problem for Europe

Western Balkan region, after the Western military intervention nineties, is still in chaos, divided by inter-ethnic tensions and democratic decline, the newspaper writes American Interest.

loss of appetite

The paper states that the United States, believing that the democratic future of the Western Balkans lies in the EU membership, the responsibility for political, institutional and economic development of the region gave way to the EU. However, Europe is not completely done deal, because the EU, following the acceptance of Croatian and Slovenian, lost appetite for expansion and maintained the rest of the region of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and Macedonia that are waiting on the doorstep.

Brexit, migrant crisis, with the rise of anti-European feeling in recent years have shaken the foundations of the EU, and delaying the process of accession of new members, and at the same time "bloody tensions" in the region and lack of development are just the "purulent", leaving poor and unstable country on periphery of Europe, and the vacuum that was created began to be filled by other actors, writes the American media. Russia has confirmed its traditional role as protector of the Orthodox population, using the Balkans as a buffer to prevent further European expansion and consolidate its sphere of influence.

Russia's influence on public opinion among Serbs, Montenegrins and Macedonians to alleviate enthusiasm for membership in the EU and NATO, and has further strengthened its power through military aid. According to the recently conducted survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), Macedonia's support for NATO membership in the lowest the level of 2008, while a similar survey conducted in BiH shows that only 18 percent of Serbs strongly supports accession to the EU.

Turkey and the Gulf countries have responded by enhancing its support for the Muslims in the Balkans, and the help they provide is not always benign - Saudi Arabia has built mosques and imams led from the Balkans to the Gulf for religious instruction. Some advocate the conservative Wahhabism, which is opposed to the moderate Islam that is practiced for centuries in the Balkans. All this has led to a rise in Islamic fundamentalism among the local Muslim population. Given this environment, it's not surprising that identity politics focused on ethno-religious nationalism revived.

RS President Milorad Dodik called for a referendum for independence, and it is known that he often traveled to Moscow for consultations with Putin. On the other hand, the leader of the SDA, Bakir Izetbegovic regularly travels to Istanbul to paint with all the authoritative Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

improving cooperation

As another sign of increasing tension, and despite the constant presence of 5,000 NATO troops and strong opposition from Western Alliance, as well as Serbia and Macedonia, Hashim Thaci called for the establishment of the Army of Kosovo, and Serbs tried to direct train emblazoned with the slogan "Kosovo is Serbia "in Kosovo. Albanian president Edi Rama often speaks of the need to improve cooperation between his country and the Albanians in Kosovo and Macedonia, prompting critics to accuse him of trying to establish a "Greater Albania".

With the collapse of the Middle East and the nuclear threat of North Korea, the question is why would the Balkans in general was an important West? The answer to that, according to the American Interest, is the proximity of the region Europe means to destabilize the Balkans can quickly become a problem for Europe. Region 2015 is a major route for more than one million migrants who fled to Germany and Sweden, and the crisis could have been much worse if local leaders have failed to put aside their differences and work together.

List concludes that, if regional tensions continue to escalate, such cooperation can not be expected for the coming crisis and it represents how humanitarian, and security risk, because the fighters of the Islamic countries to continue to take advantage of the chaos and enter Europe. It claims that Russia has long monitored the divisions in the region in support of its strategic advantages over Europe, and increased indifference or hostility toward Western institutions in favor of the Kremlin.

Without an anchor in Western institutions, liberal democracy and the rise of religious fundamentalism is likely to become the norm in the region. According to some observers, the redrawing of national borders is the only way to solve this multi-year ethnic division. However, the fact is that there is no way to delineate the border, and that no ethnic group is not at a loss. Despite the wars in Bosnia and Herzegovina, there are still areas, like Sarajevo, where Serbs, Croats and Muslims live side by side. Moreover, the simple exchange of land, based on the ethnic majority is a recipe for chaos in the Balkans.

conflict resolution

In Kosovo, Serbs in Mitrovica resist Albanian majority and they want to unite with Serbia, and as there are Albanian community in the Presevo Valley in southern Serbia, on paper it could be assumed that the two territories could only replace the population. However, exchange-Presevo Mitrovica provoked to fight over the territory, because not all bordering the enclave, and for the same reason, it is unlikely that Serbia will agree to hand over the predominantly Muslim Sandzak, Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to the American Interest.

A better way is to establish and strengthen regional institutions that facilitate economic and political coordination and conflict resolution. Customs union could be a step in the right direction, but not a substitute for NATO and the EU, writes the newspaper. Unfortunately, the EU has all but abandoned its strategy of expansion in the region, for fear that he would overwhelm cheap labor, or maybe for her was better to accept the Western Balkans, which could lead to an increase in regional cooperation, thus reducing the inter-ethnic tensions.

The paper states that the integration into NATO as important and more easily attainable for the Western Balkans, and after Montenegro door open for Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia, whose merger sent the signal that the Balkans is seen as part of the West and will help resist Russian penetration . West is facing a difficult choice - either to treat the Balkans as a strategic asset or risk losing region in Russian influence, with the infiltration of Islamic extremism. In September last year, BiH has submitted an official request for admission to the EU, which Brussels should seriously consider, after Montenegro's NATO should take and Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina as a future member.

With turmoil in the EU integration of the countries is more important than ever, concludes an American newspaper.

Until recently, there was a view that the NATO intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina was one of the crown the success of the post-Cold War era of the West - Milosevic is defeated, Kosovo is declared independent, and today the three countries of the Western Balkans, NATO members. However, almost two decades of the Ohrid Agreement, the region is still in chaos, divided by inter-ethnic tensions and democratic decline, writes in his analysis of the Journal of the American Interest.

• 19 Jun, 2017
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