Fight for the Western Balkans

The Balkans are again high on the list of priorities, and the main players are Washington, Moscow, Brussels, Beijing and Ankara.

The announcement of an increased number of observers from Great Britain and NATO in this year's elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina is in line with the recent invitation of the High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, to boost the engagement of the international community in the country. This means that Inzko clearly supports the idea of the work of former high-level representatives who have supported the European countries and the United States for the implementation of reforms, the imposition of laws, and the removal of legally elected officials.

Observers should ensure the legitimate course of the electoral process, but there is also a significant increase in the number of soldiers who would, according to the British newspaper The Times , have the goal of "preventing the interference of Russia during the upcoming elections". The British are particularly aiming to carry out free and fair elections without harmful external influences. This applies to Russia as well as to any other country. Every election process in Europe now seems to be with fear that Russia would not take its fingers and influence the electoral outcome.

While in some countries this kind of interference of other states is obvious, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as throughout the Balkans, it is far more interesting and far-reaching political process. The European Union has set an ambitious agenda for the Western Balkans. First, she wants to provide assistance in targeting refugee waves from the Middle East and from Africa. Secondly, she wants the region to resolve her inner quarrels peacefully. Finally, it wants to reduce the impact of Turkey and Russia in the region as much as possible. None of these goals is easy to achieve, and this third is particularly difficult given the deep historical ties between Russia and Turkey with the Balkans. But in recent years, Russia and Turkey are occupied with their own socioeconomic difficulties, so the Balkans have not been on a high ranking of priorities.

Closing the 'black hole' in Europe

The new plan appears as a framework document for achieving the German goals in the region, in particular the Berlin Process, and includes a financial plan for the Western Balkans and mentions 2025 as the final year of countries' entry into the European Union and the closure of this "black hole" in Europe. Of course, nothing can be guaranteed, because in 2025, it is far and much can happen in Brussels, as well as in those countries. Brussels's promise, especially given the close co-operation with NATO and the United States, is nevertheless a clear message to Russia and Turkey about German and US intentions.

In November last year, the Atlantic Council , a think tank of experts and advisor to the State Department and NATO, held a Balkan expert conference and published a study on the new US strategy for the Balkans, in which the Atlantic Council advises all Western Balkan countries as soon as possible The NATO Alliance, and that the United States will take on a key role in the region, along with the EU's coordination efforts. The Foreign Policy Committee (CFR), which shaped the US foreign policy vision since 1921, also set the Balkans to the top third position in 2018, after North Korea and the fight against radical Islamists.

This sets up a completely new contour of international political relations related to the Balkans. After the Middle East, the Balkans is a new area where proxy conflicts of various forms and types could be conducted, in which the idea of a multipolar world would be tested. It is about the idea and vision of a world in which there is no longer unipolar power of the United States, but several centers of power act coordinated or mutually confronted in the political, economic and cultural formation of international relations. Here, the power of the United States, Russia, China, India, the European Union and other countries is visible here, globally and regionally. In the Balkan region, the major players are Washington, Moscow, Brussels, Beijing and Ankara. Russia, Turkey and China are showing developmental models that are separate from political conditions or based on alternative values. In other words,

Serbia is the most reliable ally of Russia

It seems that Russia is at the top of the list of headaches in the EU. EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Federica Mogherini voiced concern over 2017 that "Moscow's presumed goal is to remove the region's connection with the EU and to present Russia as an alternative." According to these opinions, the Russians are leading the "split and rule" strategy in order to conquer the euro-skeptic sectors of local societies and weaken the EU's activities. Such opinions also suggest that Russia is a historical ally of the Bosnian Serbs, supporting its moves to obstruct the progress of Bosnia and Herzegovina towards the NATO alliance.

Russia does not hide the fact that it has economic and political interests in the region and that they often oppose Euro-Atlantic interests. Russian Duma deputy, Sergei Shargunov, goes so far as to say that "Russia has a romantic relationship with the Western Balkans". But this "love" does not turn into economic gain. On average, 70% of the Western Balkans exports go to the EU, which has shown steady growth over the past ten years. The trend is the opposite when it comes to Russia. However, Russia has a significant impact in the energy sector in Serbia, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, countries where Moscow covers almost 100 percent of gas demand. As for the concrete results of political influence, it seems that Serbia is the most reliable ally of Russia. Belgrade has refused to apply EU sanctions against Russia and is negotiating free trade with the Eurasian Economic Union. Furthermore, the population of Serbia generally looks at relations with Russia in a positive way and does not support NATO. Although generally satisfied with the movement of Serbia to the EU, Serbian public opinion also supports closer ties with Russia.

Great interests of Turkey and China in the region

But it is not just Russia that plays the game that is against the interests of Western countries in the Balkans. Turkey has the same, if not stronger, historical links with the Balkans and also has great interests in this part of Europe. Trilateral consultation mechanisms between Turkey, Bosnia and Serbia are the perfect example of Ankara's commercial diplomacy in the Balkans. The latest trilateral meeting in January discussed the Turkish investment in the region and key infrastructure projects, and Erdogan pledged to assist Bosnia and Serbia in the construction of highways to connect these two countries. Many Turkey's political and economic initiatives are being made to support the Euro-integration path of the Balkan countries, especially because Ankara wants to have good allies within the EU, such as BiH or Albania. However,

Finally, there is the influence of China. All the countries of the Western Balkans - excluding Kosovo, which China does not recognize - are part of the 16 + 1 cooperation platform. This forum connects Beijing with sixteen countries and is considered a test alliance in the overall relations between China and Europe. The co-operation formulation interferes with "soft politics" (confidence-building and cultural exchange initiatives) and economic co-operation, especially in the field of infrastructure. The role of these sixteen partners is considered crucial in the light of the Chinese creation of a distribution infrastructure that will facilitate the movement of Chinese goods from several ports in southern Europe - Piraeus, Thessaloniki and Bar - via the Balkans to northern Europe. Chinese companies have received contracts in the region worth 5.5 billion euros for the construction of highways and railways. The rising inflow of Chinese foreign direct investment in Europe has probably accelerated the European Commission's proposal to establish a legal framework for testing the inflow of FDI into the EU. The full integration of the Western Balkans region into a European single market is in the interest of China, but not in the interest of all European member states.

All these countries have an interest in the BiH elections, as in all other elections in the Balkans. The Western threat of force, however, is the worst form of accounting with this state. Showing and promising an attractive integration project is not enough; The EU must ensure that it adheres to it. The existence of alternative factors and models is not a major problem facing BiH and other Balkan countries. But if the EU does not adhere to its expansion strategy or reduce its presence in the region, then all methods and promises will be unrealistic. Pursuing a pro-European commitment without concrete steps is what reinforces alternative models of development - especially for those actors who are increasingly dissatisfied with European politics.

• 10 Jun, 2018
• 2360 views